VTTVTT Tietopalvelu Julkaisutoiminta

Pol-Corridor
Assessment of Demand for the Blue Shuttle Train’s Services in North and South European Markets

Leviäkangas, Pekka, Lehtinen, Jarkko, Berg, Inna & Alaruikka, Anna-Maija

VTT Building and Transport, Kaitoväylä 1, P.O. Box 18021, FI-90571 Oulu, Finland


VTT Research Notes 2293, April 2005, 72 p. [in English, Finnish abstr. ]
ISBN 951–38–6550–9 (soft back ed.)
ISBN 951–38–6551–7 (PDF edition) 951–38–6550–9 (nid.)951–38–6551–7

Project: Pol-Corridor


Commissioned by TEKES (Elo-programme), LVM, the harbours of Turku, Helsinki, Kotka and Hamina, Finnlines Ltd.

Keywords: corridors, intermodal transport, freight flow, Polcorridor, train services, North Europe, South Europe, market assessment, feasibility, economy

Abstract

This report describes the prospects of a new trans-European freight supply network stretching from the Nordic countries to Central, Southern and South-eastern Europe. The northern part of the corridor consists of sea-land connections from Sweden, Finland and Norway to an intermodal hub in Poland. From there, the corridor connects via a regularly scheduled block train – the ”Blue Shuttle Train” – to an intermodal hub in Vienna. The southern part of the corridor comprises the existing land connections to destinations in most of Central, Southern and South-eastern Europe.

This report covers results of Work Package 1 of the Pol-Corridor project, assessing the demand for Blue Shuttle Train’s services in North and South European markets. The main objectives of the work were to assess the freight volumes currently shipped in the North-South direction and to forecast the international freight volumes in the near future.

First, the assessment of Pol-Corridor’s potential for carrying Finnish flows and the method for assessment are presented. Most of the potential destination countries can be identified as well as the countries that are insignificant for the Pol-Corridor concept. Also the maximum and minimum potential for Blue Shuttle Train and the issue of balanced transportation in North-South directions are discussed.

Second, the potential for Nordic flows has been assessed by using the same method presented with the Finnish flows. This assessment provides deeper insight to possible future development. Scenarios projected till the beginning of 2006 are defined in order to probe the business potential for Blue Shuttle Train.

It can be concluded that Pol-Corridor and Blue Shuttle Train will be an alternative for international north-south logistics provided if either of the following clauses is fulfilled: 1) many countries at the south-end of Pol-Corridor will direct their Northbound flows to Blue Shuttle Train instead of to trailers on roads or 2) Austrian and Italian exports will use Blue Shuttle Train and Pol-Corridor in their Northbound transport.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1. PolCorridor Overall System Chart (Ludvigsen, 2003).

Figure 2. Data refining process.

Table 1. Pol-Corridor relevant players in Finland.

Player, organisations

Primary interest, task

Ministry of Transport and Communication Finland

Support for export and import trade routes that serve the competitiveness of Finnish industries

Finnlines Ltd

Sea carrier; optimising Baltic Sea routes and efficient utilisation of vessel capacity

Ports of Helsinki, Turku, Kotka, Hamina and Oulu

Providing facilities for potential goods flows according to their geographical location and special features

Paper product producing cluster: StoraEnso, M-Real, UPM-Kymmene

Creating efficient supply chains for Pol-Corridor markets

Metal product producing cluster: Rautaruukki, AvestaPolarit

Creating efficient supply chains for Pol-Corridor markets

Finnish and multi-national forwarders and transporters cluster

Finding cost efficient and reliable trade routes for their clients

Importing and exporting SMEs

These companies many times lack a structured logistics system. A concept like Pol-Corridor could answer to their needs and could lower their logistics costs.

Table 2. Some important Finnish ports and their special areas of interest.

Port

Relevant port-to-port destinations/origins

Special focus

Statistics & Notes

Helsinki

Stockholm, Helsingborg, Tallinn, Gdynia, Szcecin, Lubeck, Travemunde, Rostock, Bremerhaven, Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Pireues, Istanbul.

Specializes in unitized cargo transport. Biggest unitized cargo port in Finland.

Over 9 million passengers and over 10 million tons of cargo each year.

Turku

Stockholm, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Travemünde, Antwerpen, Gdansk.

Facilities and equipment to serve trains, lorries and trailers in both Scandinavian and continental transport.

More than 4 mill. tonnes and over 4 mill. Passengers annually.

Mann Lines Oy has opened a new shipping line Turku–Tallinn–Gdansk–Kiel–Bremerhaven–Kiel–Turku.

Kotka

Antwerpen, Fredericia, Tallinn, Bremen, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Lübeck, Rostock, Elefsis, Heraklion, Patras, Piraeus, Salonica, Stylis, Marina di Carrara, Rotterdam, Amsterdam/Zaandam/Ouderkerk, Gdynia, Istanbul, Mersin.

Paper products and transit to/from Russia

More than 8 mill. tonnes per year.

Hamina

Antwerp, Copenhagen/Århus, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Bremen, Hamburg, Lübeck, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Terneuzen.

Specialised in forest products, containers and liquid bulk. Liquid bulk export is the main cargo group in transit transport (transit 24 % of total cargo tonnes) from Russia.

Annual transport of 5 million tonnes. In 2002 forest industry exports 49 %, forest industry related imports (3 %). 17 % is unitised cargo.

Table 3. Total Finnish export volumes to Pol-Corridor countries, 1 000 tons (Finnish Customs 2002).

SITC_1

1999

2000

2001

2002

99–01

99–02

0. Food and live animals

13

14

20

17

54 %

33 %

1. Beverages and tobacco

4

2

3

4

–18 %

5 %

2. Crude materials, inedible, except fuels

698

654

655

702

–6 %

1 %

3. Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials

357

38

16

36

–96 %

–90 %

4. Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes

0

3

1

3

118 %

488 %

5. Chemicals and related products

182

175

221

242

22 %

33 %

6. Manufactured goods

1 725

1 866

1 762

1 893

2 %

10 %

7. Machinery and transport equipment

77

123

134

89

74 %

13 %

8. Miscellaneous manufactured articles

19

22

24

19

26 %

0 %

Total

3 075

2 897

2 836

3 005

–8 %

–2 %

Table 4. Total Finnish import volumes from Pol-Corridor countries, 1 000 tons (Finnish Customs 2002).

SITC_1

1999

2000

2001

2002

99–01

99–02

0. Food and live animals

79

98

97

90

22 %

14 %

1. Beverages and tobacco

14

15

13

15

8 %

4 %

2. Crude materials, inedible, except fuels

150

149

110

115

27 %

23 %

3. Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials

2 161

2 360

2 566

1 922

19 %

11 %

4. Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes

0

1

1

1

2 %

58 %

5. Chemicals and related products

195

225

250

218

28 %

12 %

6. Manufactured goods

307

350

357

357

16 %

16 %

7. Machinery and transport equipment

126

128

216

156

72 %

21 %

8. Miscellaneous manufactured articles

25

28

34

30

34 %

17 %

Total

3 057

3 354

3 644

2 904

19 %

5 %

Table 5. Finnish trade with Pol-Corridor countries 1999–2002, 1 000 tons (Finnish Customs 2002).

FINNISH TRADE

EXPORTS

IMPORTS

1999

2000

2001

2002

99–02

1999

2000

2001

2002

99–02

Albania

2

1

3

2

–22 %

0

0

0

0

0 %

Austria

287

296

288

272

–5 %

90

102

98

103

14 %

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1

0

0

1

1 %

5

1

2

0

–100 %

Bulgaria

19

20

20

22

14 %

9

29

6

11

22 %

Croatia

8

11

13

15

80 %

0

1

5

2

307 %

Czech
Repu
blic

85

113

90

115

36 %

68

75

135

124

82 %

Greece

252

248

255

298

18 %

61

45

88

51

–17 %

Hungary

101

128

144

140

39 %

38

44

43

40

4 %

Italy

1 163

1 160

1 171

1 149

–1 %

256

272

318

304

19 %

Macedonia

2

1

1

1

–65 %

0

0

0

0

76 %

Poland

840

552

590

664

–21 %

2 406

2 646

2 808

2 133

–11 %

Romania

13

14

13

14

3 %

2

10

12

12

536 %

Slovakia

60

61

71

74

23 %

18

20

21

27

53 %

Slovenia

22

22

17

15

–30 %

6

9

9

9

48 %

Turkey

218

267

159

219

0 %

97

99

98

87

–9 %

Yugoslavia

2

3

1

4

80 %

1

1

1

1

68 %

Total

3 075

2 897

2 836

3 005

–2 %

3 057

3 354

3 644

2 904

–5 %

Table 6. Sea transport between Finland and some Pol-Corridor countries in 2002, 1 000 tons (Finnish Maritime Administration).

Country

Sea transport to

% exports

Sea transport from

% imports

Italy

346

30

28

9

Greece

213

71

31

61

Turkey

102

47

56

64

Poland

779

117

2 266

106

Table 7. Annual expected growth in export for 2002–2006 (source: EIU).

Annual export growth

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Austria

2.7 %

4.5 %

5.1 %

5.3 %

5.4 %

Bulgaria

0.4 %

3.6 %

6.5 %

8.5 %

9.3 %

Croatia

6.8 %

6.5 %

6.7 %

na

na

Czech rep

5.1 %

11.5 %

10.9 %

10.1 %

9.4 %

Finland

3.2 %

5.2 %

6.6 %

7.1 %

6.1 %

Greece

4.4 %

5.3 %

6.2 %

6.0 %

5.2 %

Hungary

6.9 %

8.1 %

14.5 %

12.1 %

7.0 %

Italy

–0.3 %

2.2 %

3.5 %

3.1 %

2.2 %

Norway

2.4 %

2.6 %

3.1 %

3.0 %

2.9 %

Poland

3.5 %

6.5 %

10.3 %

8.2 %

7.8 %

Slovakia

4.2 %

10.6 %

8.8 %

10.1 %

8.6 %

Slovenia

4.9 %

6.8 %

6.5 %

na

na

Sweden

2.5 %

4.3 %

4.7 %

5.0 %

5.1 %

Romania

8.7 %

7.3 %

7.0 %

5.0 %

6.0 %

Russia

4.0 %

4.0 %

5.0 %

6.0 %

6.0 %

Turkey

5.1 %

5.4 %

6.7 %

6.4 %

5.9 %

Table 8. Annual expected growth in import for 2002–2006 (source: EIU).

Annual import growth

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Austria

1.0 %

4.7 %

5.8 %

5.8 %

5.9 %

Bulgaria

2.4 %

5.2 %

6.9 %

8.5 %

9.3 %

Croatia

4.0 %

6.4 %

6.9 %

na

na

Czech rep

4.7 %

11.7 %

10.3 %

8.8 %

8.2 %

Finland

0.0 %

6.2 %

9.1 %

8.2 %

8.0 %

Greece

6.0 %

7.9 %

6.8 %

5.9 %

5.6 %

Hungary

9.1 %

10.6 %

12.3 %

12.6 %

5.4 %

Italy

–0.1 %

3.0 %

4.0 %

3.5 %

3.1 %

Norway

3.5 %

3.7 %

3.7 %

3.0 %

2.4 %

Poland

1.5 %

5.9 %

8.8 %

8.3 %

8.0 %

Slovakia

3.0 %

9.1 %

8.1 %

8.5 %

8.4 %

Slovenia

5.2 %

7.6 %

7.0 %

na

na

Sweden

0.4 %

4.6 %

5.2 %

5.6 %

5.6 %

Romania

6.9 %

8.0 %

9.0 %

7.0 %

7.0 %

Russia

9.0 %

6.0 %

8.0 %

7.0 %

8.0 %

Turkey

7.5 %

7.4 %

9.0 %

8.1 %

8.9 %

Figure 3. Cumulative expected growth in export or import between 2002 and 2006. (Upper figure is export, lower figure is import; source EIU.)

Table 9. Annual expected growth in private consumption and cumulative growth for 2002–2006 (source: EIU).

Real growth in private consumption (%)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2002–2006
cum
ulative

Austria

1.1 %

1.6 %

2.2 %

2.1 %

2.1 %

9.4 %

Bulgaria

3.6 %

3.8 %

4.0 %

4.0 %

3.9 %

20.8 %

Croatia

5.6 %

3.7 %

4.0 %

na

na

13.9 %*

Finland

2.0 %

2.4 %

2.7 %

2.8 %

2.8 %

13.4 %

Greece

3.0 %

3.2 %

3.2 %

3.4 %

3.2 %

17.1 %

Hungary

7.1 %

5.3 %

3.9 %

3.7 %

3.7 %

26.0 %

Italy

0.1 %

1.9 %

2.2 %

2.0 %

2.1 %

8.6 %

Norway

2.9 %

3.0 %

3.0 %

2.8 %

2.5 %

15.0 %

Poland

2.4 %

2.9 %

3.2 %

3.7 %

3.9 %

17.2 %

Slovakia

5.8 %

4.2 %

4.3 %

4.9 %

4.6 %

26.2 %

Slovenia

2.2 %

3.5 %

3.3 %

na

na

9.3 %*

Sweden

2.0 %

2.2 %

2.6 %

2.5 %

2.4 %

12.3 %

Romania

2.6 %

3.6 %

4.3 %

3.5 %

2.7 %

17.8 %

Russia

7.5 %

5.5 %

4.5 %

4.0 %

4.0 %

28.2 %

Turkey

1.0 %

3.8 %

4.2 %

4.4 %

4.9 %

19.6 %

Czech republic

4.1 %

4.8 %

4.3 %

3.8 %

3.5 %

22.2 %

Table 10. Finnish trade with Pol-Corridor countries, 1 000 tons; export without paper products (Finnish Customs 2002).

EXPORTS

IMPORTS

SITC groups

-99

-00

-01

-02

-99–02

-99

-00

-01

-02

-99–02

0. Food and live animals

7*

8*

12

9

33 %

77*

95*

94

86

14 %

1. Beverages and tobacco

4

2

3

4

5 %

14

15

13

15

4 %

2. Crude materials, inedible, except fuels

0

3

1

3

488 %

0

1

1

1

58 %

3. Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials

182

175

221

242

33 %

195

225

250

218

12 %

4. Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes

544*

599*

561

582

10 %

307

350

357

357

16 %

5. Chemicals and related products

77

123

134

89

13 %

126

128

156

156

21 %

6. Manufactured goods

19

22

24

19

0 %

26

28

34

30

17 %

Total

833

932

965

948

14 %

745

842

863

863

16 %

Table 11. Finnish trade with Pol-Corridor countries, 1 000 tons; export with paper products (Finnish Customs 2002).

EXPORTS

IMPORTS

SITC groups

-99

-00

-01

-02

-99–02

-99

-00

-01

-02

-99–02

0. Food and live animals

7*

8*

12

9

33 %

77*

95*

94

86

14 %

1. Beverages and tobacco

4

2

3

4

5 %

14

15

13

15

4 %

2. Crude materials, inedible, except fuels

0

3

1

3

488 %

0

1

1

1

58 %

3. Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials

182

175

221

242

33 %

195

225

250

218

12 %

4. Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes

1 725

1 866

1 762

1 893

10 %

307

350

357

357

16 %

5. Chemicals and related products

77

123

134

89

13 %

126

128

156

156

21 %

6. Manufactured goods

19

22

24

19

0 %

26

28

34

30

17 %

Total

2 011

2 198

2 160

2 258

12 %

745

842

863

863

16 %

Figure 4. Total Finnish export volumes to Pol-Corridor countries, 1 000 tons (Finnish Customs 2002).

Figure 5. Total Finnish import volumes to Pol-Corridor countries, 1 000 tons (Finnish Customs 2002).

Figure 6. Balance between export and import.

Table 12. Finnish export with Pol-Corridor countries 2001–2002, 1 000 tons; with paper products (Finnish Customs 2002).

FINNISH TRADE

EXPORTS

1999

2000

2001

2002

-99–02

Austria

209

215

214

212

1,5 %

Balkan countries

6

5

5

6

–7 %

Bulgaria

19

19

20

20

6 %

Croatia

8

10

13

15

83 %

Czech Republic

69

109

85

90

30 %

Greece

171

169

179

192

12 %

Hungary

91

115

126

127

39 %

Italy

767

820

836

811

6 %

Poland

400

441

459

499

25 %

Romania

13

14

13

14

6 %

Slovakia

58

58

68

69

19 %

Slovenia

16

16

14

13

–17 %

Turkey

183

206

130

191

4 %

Total

2 011

2 199

2 160

2 258

12 %

Table 13. Relevant Finnish trade with Pol-Corridor countries 1999–2002, 1 000 tons; export without paper products (Finnish Customs 2002).

EXPORTS

IMPORTS

FINNISH TRADE

-99

-00

-01

-02

-99–02

-99

-00

-01

-02

-99–02

Austria

86

89

78

96

12 %

75

88

86

90

21 %

Balkan countries

6

2

1

2

–96 %

7

2

3

2

–74 %

Bulgaria

4

3

4

7

76 %

4

18

3

2

–32 %

Croatia

2

3

4

3

29 %

1

0

4

1

117 %

Czech Republic

39

55

72

47

20 %

64

72

130

75

19 %

Greece

44

30

46

43

–2 %

31

43

59

51

63 %

Hungary

23

32

32

31

33 %

31

35

32

32

2 %

Italy

359

420

424

379

6 %

254

270

313

300

18 %

Poland

195

203

229

239

23 %

207

240

242

232

12%

Romania

4

5

4

6

56 %

1

1

12

2

23 %

Slovakia

13

12

14

15

11 %

17

20

20

25

45 %

Slovenia

5

5

4

5

3 %

6

9

9

9

58 %

Turkey

54

69

54

76

40 %

49

46

51

42

–14 %

Total

833

932

965

948

14 %

745

844

965

863

16 %

Figure 7. Southern POL-CORRIDOR markets, entire south Eastern European region (light blue) and core hinterland area (dark blue). Cities with population more than 250 000 are marked.

Figure 8. The Market Potential Analysis Process.

Literature

Alho, K., Hazley, C., Hernesniemi, H. & Widgrén, M. 2001. EU:n itälaajentumisen vaikutukset Suomen tuotantorakenteeseen (The Effects of EU Eastern Enlargement on Finnish Firms [with English summary]). The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, ETLA, Discussion papers No. 752. Helsinki.

Alho, K., Kaitila, V. & Widgren, M. 2001 EU:n itälaajenemisen vaikutukset Suomen elinkeinoelämälle. (The Effects of EU Eastern Enlargement on Finnish Firms [with English summary]). The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, ETLA, Series B 178. Helsinki.

Finnish Board of Customs, statistics 1999–2002. Direct information from Customs’ register.

Finnish Maritime Administration. Martina database.

FRISBEE. European transport network model owned by the Ministry of Transport and Communications Finland.

http://www.etla.fi/finnish/research/publications/searchengine/pdf/abstract/b178eng.pdf

http://www.etla.fi/finnish/research/publications/searchengine/pdf/dp/dp752.pdf

http://www.fma.fi/palvelut/tietopalvelut/tilastot/martina/

Järventaus, J.-P. 2001. Aasian talouskeskukset imevät paperia. UPM-Kymmene Watch, 2/2001. Pp. 15–17.

Ludvigsen, Johanna. 2003. Revised Master Plan for PolCorridor Project. 8th revised, scientific version. 28.5.2003. Unpublished working paper.

Interviews:

Avesta Polarit Oyj Abp, 16.6.2003. Sjaap Klap.

Finnlines Oyj, Spring 2003. Rainer Merus; several interviews.

Finnlines Oyj, 25.2.2003. Rainer Merus, Jarkko Sainio, Heidi Roering-Nordberg.

JIT-Trans, 30.5.2003. Reijo Ojala.

StoraEnso Oyj, 22.5.2003. Kari Anttila.

In-depth interviews for Chapter 6 POL-CORRIDOR Potential Assessment, Finnish Flows:

Rahtihuolinta Suomi Oy, 20.5. and 2.7.2003. Tapio Talasterä.

Oy Beweship Ab, 4.6.2003. Arto Tuominen, Stig Lönnberg.

UPS Supply Chain Solutions Oy, 6.6.2003. Päivi Kyllönen.

Danzas ASG Eurocargo Oy, 5.6.2003. Maarit Pitkänen, Jussi Heikkilä.

Schenker Oy, 6.6.2003. Bjarne Karlsson, Henri Chapelle.

Finnlines Oyj, 19.6.2003. Jarkko Saarnio, Rainer Merus, Heidi Roering-Nordberg.

VTT